Une analyse de lindustrie VFBF 1.Offre: technologie & coûts 2.Demande: tendance et volatilité 3.Segmentation de lindustrie La restructuration de lacier.

Présentation au sujet: "Une analyse de lindustrie VFBF 1.Offre: technologie & coûts 2.Demande: tendance et volatilité 3.Segmentation de lindustrie La restructuration de lacier."— Transcription de la présentation:

1 Une analyse de lindustrie VFBF 1.Offre: technologie & coûts 2.Demande: tendance et volatilité 3.Segmentation de lindustrie La restructuration de lacier aux Etats-Unis 1.Lhéritage de la Seconde guerre mondiale 2.Les problèmes structurels 3.La réponse gouvernementale 4.La restructuration La politique sidérurgique américaine: interprétation 1.La capture 2.Hypothèses alternatives La restructuration de lacier dans lUnion Européenne 1.Le Plan Davignon 2.Implications à long terme et leçons La restructuration du secteur sidérurgique aux Etats-Unis et en Europe

2 Une analyse de lindustrie VFBF 1.Offre: technologie et coûts Minimum efficient scale output unit costs Installed capacity 1 Installed capacity 2 Installed capacity 3 minimum efficient scale (MES) Average cost curves

3 Une analyse de lindustrie VFBF 3. Segmentation Integrated mills and minimills: comparison of cost structures

4 Une analyse de lindustrie VFBF 4. Restructuration Integrated mills and minimills: installed capacity, 1974 and 1994

5 La restructuration de lacier aux Etats-Unis 4. Restructuration et relocalisation Steel mill location, US, 1974

6 Steel restructuring in the US 4. Restructuration et relocalisation Steel mill location, US, 1994

7 Equations: VoteRepr j = f(Contsteel j +, ContAuto j -, ProdCap j +, FtVote j -, Empsteel j +, EmpAuto j -, RCapMin j -, u j ) Contsteel j = g(Important j +, Party j -, v j ) ContAuto j = h(Important j +, Party j +, w j ) j = 1..100 Dependent variable (to be explained) VoteRepr j : vote on 1999 steel-quota bill (yes=1) Explanatory variables Consteel j : dollar amount of contributions from steel companies and unions (PACs) ContAuto j : dollar amount of contributions from auto companies and unions (PACs) Prodcap j : steelmaking capacity in js congressional district (thousand tons) FtVote j : fast track authorityvote, yes=2, abst=1, no=0 Empsteel j : steel employment in district (SIC[1] 3310 et 3320) EmpAuto j : auto employment in district (SIC 3710) RCapMin j : % of steelmaking capacity accounted for by minimills Important j : Representative js political importance proxied by total contributions (dollars) Party j : 1=republican[1] [1] US Standard Industrial Classification Interprétations 1. La capture

8 VariableMarginal effectCoefficientMeanStandard deviation Constant0.0654720.254901 (0.341073) (0.747350) 10 Contsteel j ** 0.0002270.000885 (0.000208) (4.248813) 1668 (dollars) 2691.30 (dollars) ContAuto j * -0.0000670-0.000261 (0.000120) (-2.178903) 1752 (dollars) 2745.374 (dollars) Prodcap j * 0.00002540.0000990 (0.0000395) (2.504312) 5341.55 (thousand tons) 8375.496 (thousand tons) FtVote j ** -0.191331-0.744906 (0.211283) (-3.525633) 0.72 (yes=2, abs=1, no=0) 0.954310 (yes=2, abs=1, no=0) Empsteel j -0.0000357-0.000139 (0.000176) (-0.791660) 895.5616 (number of jobs) 1294.243 (number of jobs) EmpAuto j -0.0000131-0.0000510 (0.0000870) (-0.585965) 2234.584 (number of jobs) 3754.875 (number of jobs) Regression results 1 Interprétations 1. La capture

9 Regression results 2 VariableMarginal effect CoefficientMeanStandard deviation Constant0.5840822.419182 (1.100215) (2.198827) 10 Contsteel j ** 0.0002380.000987 (0.000225) (4.381999) 1668 (dollars) 2691.30 (dollars) ContAuto j * -0.0000625-0.000259 (0.000123) (-2.105142) 1752 (dollars) 2745.374 (dollars) Prodcap j * 0.000008930.0000370 (0.0000494) (0.747969) 5341.55 (thousand tons) 8375.496 (thousand tons) FtVote j ** -0.175347-0.726261 (0.230398) (-3.152202) 0.72 (yes=2, abs=1, no=0) 0.954310 (yes=2, abs=1, no=0) Empsteel j -0.0000488-0.000202 (0.000176) (-1.150557) 895.5616 (number of jobs) 1294.243 (number of jobs) EmpAuto j -0.0000169-0.00007 (0.0000934) (-0.749734) 2234.584 (number of jobs) 3754.875 (number of jobs) RCapMin j * -0.005785-0.023961 (0.011217) (-2.136034) 77.26862 (%) 32.08944 (%) Interprétations 1. La capture