La nouvelle donne de lindustrie pétrolière et gazière par Nordine Ait-Laoussine Alger/Algérie Le 23 février 2013 N13-02.00 10 e Session Forum dAlger.

Présentation au sujet: "La nouvelle donne de lindustrie pétrolière et gazière par Nordine Ait-Laoussine Alger/Algérie Le 23 février 2013 N13-02.00 10 e Session Forum dAlger."— Transcription de la présentation:

1 La nouvelle donne de lindustrie pétrolière et gazière par Nordine Ait-Laoussine Alger/Algérie Le 23 février 2013 N13-02.00 10 e Session Forum dAlger

2 Plan de présentation Introduction Rétrospective des principaux évènements La nouvelle donne pétrolière - Implications pour lOPEP La nouvelle donne gazière - Implications pour lAlgérie Conclusions N13-02.01

3 The worlds center of gravity is shifting to Asia N13-02.02 Oil Consumption (in mmbd)Gas Consumption (in bcm) 20002011 20002011 OECD48.646.4-2.21'3561'534+178 China4.69.2+4.610130+120 Other Asia7.811.0+3.2197460+263 Middle East4.77.4+2.7187403+216 Other Non-OECD11.514.8+3.3672825+153 World77.288.8+11.62'4223'352+930 GDP RankingPIW TOP 50 Ranking 2000201120002011 1. USA Petrochina (9)CNPC (4) 2. Japan2. ChinaPertamina (10)ONGC (19) 3. Germany3. JapanPetronas (24)Petronas (20) 4. UK4. GermanyONGC (32)Sinopec (21) 5. France5. BrazilSinopec (33)Pertamina (28) 6. China6. UKCPC (49)CNOOC (33) 4.8 mmbd6.2 mmbd 120 bcm213 bcm Sources: BP Statistics, IEA and PIW

4 IOCs are struggling to meet their reserves and production targets N13-02.03 Sources: Companies annual reports and PIW % of World Reserves3.7

5 Higher oil prices have led to spectacular growth in oil and gas output N13-02.04 (1) Including biofuels and processing gains Sources: BP Statistics and IEA Oil Production Growth (mmbd)Gas Production Growth (bcm) 20002012 20002012 Russia6.510.7+4.2 Middle East208526+318 Other FSU1.53.0+1.5 Russia + Other FSU683800+117 USA8.09.1+1.1 USA543651+108 Canada2.73.8+1.1 China27103+76 China3.34.2+0.9 Africa130203+73 Brazil1.32.2+0.9 Latin America100168+68 Colombia0.71.0+0.3 Europe256236-20 Other Non-OPEC22.519.3-3.2 Other466589+123 Total Non-OPEC (1) 46.553.3+6.8 Total World2'4133'276+863

6 Les cours du brut ont connu une volatilité extrême entre 2007 et 2010 N13-02.05 US $/bl Euro/bl Moyennes mensuelles Sources: EIA and Oil Daily Brent Crude Oil

7 IEA and OPEC long-term outlooks (1) Including biofuel consumption and bunkers in the case of the IEA (2) Including biofuels and processing gains (3) including NGLs, GTLs and extra-heavy crudes in the case of OPEC IEA World Energy Outlook 2012OPEC World Oil Outlook 2012 (New Policies Scenario)(Reference Case) (in mmbd)20112020 20102020 Global Demand (1) 88.896.6+7.887.096.9+9.9 Global Non-OPEC Supply (2) 52.258.9+6.7 (4) 52.358.6+6.3 (4) OPEC Non-Crude Supply (3) 6.48.8+2.45.07.6+2.6 Call on OPEC Crude29.329.8+0.529.330.9+1.6 N13-02.06 4) Main contributors to Non-OPEC Supply Growth (mmbd) 20112020 USA 8.1 11.1+3.0 Brazil 2.2 4.0+1.8 Canada 3.5 4.9+1.4 Kazakhstan 1.6 2.1+0.5 Colombia 0.9 1.2+0.3

8 mmbd Sources: IEA (Oil Market Report), OPEC (World Oil Outlook) and Nalcosas estimates OPEC Capacity Demand for OPEC-12 Oil Demand for OPEC-11 Oil mmbd Iraq The call on OPEC-11 oil is entering a significant long-term decline N13-02.07

9 World gas demand will be driven by continued rapid expansion in Asia N13-02.08 Source: IEA WEO New Policies Scenario (in bcm)20102025 Non-OECD China110390+280 India64116+52 Other Asia219295+76 Total Asia393801+408 Middle East376538+162 Africa103153+50 Russia466508+42 Other Non-OECD372472+100 Total Non-OECD1'7102'472+762 OECD USA680736+56 Europe569619+50 Other OECD348441+93 Total OECD1'5971'796+199 Total World3'3074'268+961

10 Trends in international LNG Trade N13-02.09 2010201520202025 Qatar76 Qatar103 Australia110 Australia115 Indonesia31 Australia60 Qatar105 Qatar105 Malaysia30 Indonesia30 Nigeria38 USA50 Australia25 Malaysia30 Russia35 Canada40 Nigeria24 Nigeria30 Algeria30 Nigeria40 Trinidad20 Algeria25 Malaysia30 Russia40 Algeria19 Trinidad20 USA30 Algeria35 Russia13 Russia15 Indonesia28 Mozambique35 Oman11 USA15 Canada25 Malaysia30 Others51 Others52 Trinidad17 Indonesia25 Mozambique15 Trinidad15 Others30 Others35 300 380 493 565

11 Globalisation does not mean LNG prices would collapse from current levels N13-02.10

12 Conclusions La nouvelle donne de lindustrie pétrolière et gazière comporte des éléments rassurants et des motifs de préoccupation. Eléments rassurants : -Capacité dadaptation de lindustrie au nouvel environnement -Progrès technologiques -Prix du pétrole assurant léquilibre offre/demande à long terme -Eclipse de la théorie du «peak oil» Motifs de préoccupation : –Extrême volatilité des cours –Financiarisation des marchés pétroliers –Indécision sur la protection de lenvironnement –Excédent de capacité OPEP /«Peak demand» –Incertitude sur les prix du gaz exporté N13-02.11