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1 26/11/2009CNFM, GM CNFM Conseil dOrientation du GIP 26 novembre 2009 Lindustrie des Semiconducteurs Marché et évolutions techniques … du mieux à lhorizon.

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Présentation au sujet: "1 26/11/2009CNFM, GM CNFM Conseil dOrientation du GIP 26 novembre 2009 Lindustrie des Semiconducteurs Marché et évolutions techniques … du mieux à lhorizon."— Transcription de la présentation:

1 1 26/11/2009CNFM, GM CNFM Conseil dOrientation du GIP 26 novembre 2009 Lindustrie des Semiconducteurs Marché et évolutions techniques … du mieux à lhorizon après la tempête… Gérard MATHERON Président du Sitelesc, Directeur STMicroelectronics Crolles

2 2 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Marché du Semiconducteur 3-mma (sept. 09) En unit é s et en valeurs ($) Source : WSTS Record de Nov $ Unités Record dOct Niveau de Juillet 08 Niveau de fev Md$/M

3 3 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Zoom: ASP Total SC à fin sept. 09 $ ASP 3/12 12/12 3/12 Source : WSTS 3/12 $ ASP 12/12

4 4 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Marché du Semiconducteur par zones géographiques (sept. 09) Source : WSTS 3/12: -24.8% 12/12: -30.4% 3/12: 7.8% 12/12: -14.2% 3/12: -8.9% 12/12: -17.8% 3/12: -14.9% 12/12: -23.1%

5 5 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Cycle du marché par application à fin sept. 09 3/12: -17.3% 12/12: -41.1% 3/12: -17.6% 12/12: -27.4% 3/12: -23.1% 12/12: % 3/12: -12.7% 12/12: -23.8% Source : WSTS

6 6 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Source : ST, from VLSI Research (Equipment, revised each month) and WSTS (Semiconductor market) Dec mma : 14.3% 12-mma : 19.0% Sep09 (e) 3-mma : 11.3% 12-mma : 12.6% Ratio investissements sur Ventes SC à fin sept. 09

7 7 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Consultancy Comments Gartner DTQ-17.1%10.3%Updated in August iSuppli-16.5%13.8%Updated in September IDC-18.0% Forecast issued in June 2009 Future Horizon-10.0%22.0%Updated in November Semico Research-12.0%20.0%Updated in September SIA-11.6%10.2%Updated in November WSTS-21.6%7.3%Forecast issued in June 2009 Databeans-13.0%17.0%Updated in November Average (Y vs Y-1)-15.0%14.4% Consensus forecasts for semiconductors market in 2009 and 2010

8 8 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Market: Multimedia Convergence Solutions

9 9 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Stereoscopic –Eyewear needed Auto-stereoscopic –No eyewear Volumetric –Holographic Glasses with integrated display Market: 3D Displays in 2012

10 10 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Market: Driving Innovation: Safety and Multimedia Convergence High perf. ICs, power monitoring, RF bip

11 11 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Market: Lab on chip for early flu detection Integration of a full biological protocol Miniaturisation Market initiated in Asia

12 12 26/11/2009CNFM, GM

13 13 26/11/2009CNFM, GM CMOS Technology Evolution HKMG Benefits 1x 0.1x 0.01x Leakage Power 65nm45nm 32nm +17%+35% 4x 10x

14 14 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Low Power Design Solution Needs

15 15 26/11/2009CNFM, GM The GHz+ Implementation Challenge No single optimization area. Must implement global approaches. Strong co-optimization of Design/CAD/Process is key MHz ARM926 90nm 450MHz ARM nm 550MHz Cortex R4 45nm Max Achieved Frequency at Standard Voltage, 125C Cortex A9 32nm 600MHz 1GHz+ Need to implement breakthrough techniques to step-up from natural evolution

16 16 26/11/2009CNFM, GM CMOS SOC and RF Integration Roadmap - Stacking RF chip on digital SOC Digital SOC BB and Multimedia Processor FE Module 3D Integration Merging Switches, PA on a single die Connectivity, EM, Transceiver on another die

17 17 26/11/2009CNFM, GM 3D Integration Roadmap

18 18 26/11/2009CNFM, GM R&D spending: SW increasingly counts Changing role of silicon technology in the value chain For memories, the manufacturing technology is the product For microprocessors, the technology is a key differentiator For consumer ASICs, ASSPs, Technology & implementation are still there, but System & SW is becoming more important Product Development 2/3 Platform Development 1/3 Companys R&D spending as a % of sales, split by product and platform development expenses Previous model Current trend Product Development 4/5 Platform Development 1/5 Chip Design System Software Si Process Chip Design System Software CAD/Lib Si Process

19 19 26/11/2009CNFM, GM

20 20 26/11/2009CNFM, GM

21 21 26/11/2009CNFM, GM

22 22 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Advanced Wafer Manufacturing Challenges Considering the explosion of both R&D costs and Manufacturing Fab capital, volume ramp-up concurrent with yield increase requires availability of Robust and Designed for Manufacturing Advanced Technologies Capital Expenditure in Billion$ Fab Capital Expenditure Trend 40K WPM modules Source: IC Insights, Inc and ST estimate 100mm 150mm200mm 300mm 450mm 32/28nm 45/32nm 65/45nm 22/16nm ?

23 23 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Consequences on competitiveness La bataille pour la maîtrise des composants nanoélectroniques est mondiale Nombre de transistors: + 30% par an Coût par transistor: -20 % par an Investissements industriels très lourds ST 2 sites encore compétitifs en Europe: Crolles et Dresde Avantages Crolles: - Accord IBM - Programme national Nano Coopération avec Léti-MINATEC ST Crolles

24 24 26/11/2009CNFM, GM

25 25 26/11/2009CNFM, GM European Semiconductor Industry fueled by European Market Leaderships European Leadership in key industry sectors: Automotive, Industrial, Medical, Power & Wireless Communication Electronic systems OEM rankings

26 26 26/11/2009CNFM, GM From R&D to Mkts: Eco-system in Europe Equipment/ System Providers Device Providers RTO (Research & Technology Organizations) Academia Markets SOURCE: L.Malier, Catrene Forum, Nov. 09

27 27 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Eco-system in US Equipment/ System Providers Device Providers Start-Ups Academia Markets DARPA, NSF, DOE, … + VCs SOURCE: L.Malier, Catrene Forum, Nov. 09

28 28 26/11/2009CNFM, GM Eco-system in Singapore (+Taïwan?) Equipment/ System Providers Device Providers RTO (ITRI, IME, …) Academia EDB, A*STAR Markets Govt pull SOURCE: L.Malier, Catrene Forum, Nov. 09

29 29 26/11/2009CNFM, GM En guise de conclusion…provisoire: Le marché repart Des applications nouvelles émergent Les ressources pour répondre aux défis technologiques sont mobilisées La bataille économique continuera et la concentration du secteur avec La position de lEurope nest pas désespérée… …et elle pourrait être encore améliorée –Transfert université-industrie plus rapide –Développement de marchés régaliens (santé, sécurité, énergie) Volonté politique?: Utilisation du Grand Emprunt et des Etats Généraux de lIndustrie


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