18-20 Feb 2016, Al Bustan Rotana, Dubai

Présentation au sujet: "18-20 Feb 2016, Al Bustan Rotana, Dubai"— Transcription de la présentation:

1 18-20 Feb 2016, Al Bustan Rotana, Dubai
Good evening everyone. I would like to Thank Mr Shrivasva & Mr. Krishnan for having me as a Speaker. My name is Amrith Kurien and I am going to be speaking to you today about RCN Market Outlook in Senegal Gambia & Bissau in 2017. As you know The SEGABI Block is the 2nd Biggest origin in Africa After IVC So what may happen or may not happen here is Important.

2 18-20 Feb 2016, Al Bustan Rotana, Dubai
Production de NCB dans la région du SeGaBi Lets take a Quick look at 2016 SEGABI Production & Exports. You will find that The much believed short Crop Theory of last Year is Busted. We did have a healthy Crop of about 245,000MT. About 40% or more was exported to Vietnam. India for the most Part of the Season was not in the Mkt. Quality Wise – Very Varied. Senegal has NC varying from 200 to 240. OT from 48 to 55. Figures of NCB 2016 Pays Production (MT) Grainage Rendement Export Senegal 35,000 MT de NCB 205/240 par kg 52 / 53 lbs 15,000 MT Gambie 10,000 MT de NCB 205/215 par kg 40,000 MT Bissau 200,000 MT de NCB 215/225 par kg 54 / 55 lbs 190,000 MT

3 18-20 Feb 2016, Al Bustan Rotana, Dubai
Exportations de NCB depuis les ports du SEGABI Individual Production Chart is to your Left & the Export Chart is to the right actually match. In 2015 & in the years before to that We had Senegal Exporting actually very little of What it Produced. Gambia Exported about 75,000+Mt Which meant it exported almost all of the 35,000Mt produced in Senegal & About 40,000 from Bissau thru Senegal. All this Changed last year with the Change in Political Scenarios in Bissau & Senegal. Borders Were closed between Gambia & Senegal that reduced the flow between Senegal Gambia– Stricter Border controls & better pricing in Bissau reduced the Flow between Bissau to Senegal & Consequently to The Gambia. As you will know Bissau commands a $100 Higher Export price Over Senegal. The Local price in Bissau though is at least $100 Lower Locally vis a Vis what a Farmer in Senegal across 100Km gets. The difference is due to the Export Tax Structure in place in Bissau which sets off the Advantage of a higher Export Price. Last year for the 1st time We found that Senegal was unable to Match Bissau Price because of the existence of a Lot more exporters in Bissau than Normal & the fact that there was more Money Pumped into the Bush than needed. This Actually resulted in No cash shortage. Also the fact that Significant amount of Exports happened from the Port of Dakar which is as Expensive as Bissau due to the Distance & the Higher Fobbing Costs. Pays Production NCB 2016 Exportation NCB 2016 Production NCB 2015 Exportation NCB 2015 SEnegal 35,000 MT 15,000 MT 1,000 MT GAmbia 10,000 MT 40,000 MT 74,000 MT BIssau 200,000 MT 190,000 MT 170,000 MT

4 18-20 Feb 2016, Al Bustan Rotana, Dubai
Prédictions via une Boule de Cristal - NCB 2017 Récolte NCB 2017: Une récolte précoce voudrait dire que la Récolte sera juste. Possibilité d’augmentation de 10% dans la taille de la récolte de NCB du SeGaBi pour la campagne 2017. Calendrier récolte NCB 2017: Pourrait débuter deux semaines plus tôt que prévu. Devise: Le Senegal et la Guinée Bissau sont dans la zone CFA rattachée à l’euro Instabilité de l’Euro Politiques: Un nouveau gouvernement de coalition en Gambie Le Sénégal sera plus complaisant, au moins à court terme avec le nouveau gouvernement Gambien en place. Le nouveau gouvernement de Bissau est maintenant stable et désireux de travailler pour un meilleur développement du secteur de la noix de cajou En conclusion, la récolte du SEGABI pour l’année 2017 semble Plus Prometteuse, Meilleure et en Avance sur celle de l’Année Dernière. Flowering Flowering seems Good & Healthy So Far. We do have a Late Harmattan that comes around the Mid/end of March which normally leaves everyone Guessing. Currency Variation The SEBi is a CFA Zone & Gambia though a NON CFA Zone heavily depends on the Cross Border Biz of the Neighboring CFA Countries. The Cfa As you know is pegged to the Euro. Therefore any Weakening/Strengthening of the Euro Affects the Local price of the SEGABI Farmer. We have seen Currency Fluctuations of anything between 3% to 5% in the Last Trade Season between March to Sept. That’s a Lot as this Biz is a 7% Margin Biz at best … so a Currency Volatility actually means it decides about 50% of your NET Margins. Political Situation Gambia has a New Government. Coalition Govt. A lot of changes are expected. An Impetuous on Local Processing is there. Senegal was very much looking at ways & means of Controlling the NCB inflow into Gambia. But a Friendly Gambian Govt currently in Place May slow this down at least in the short term. In the Long Run Alternate Ports to Dakar Export out of Senegal are planned. Bissau – We have a Govt in place that is Untested. We are made to believe that there will be quite of Few Challenges in Operating this origin this year. In conclusion the SEGABI Crop of 2017 looks Bigger, Better & Earlier than Last Year.