African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses Afrikanske Monsun: Multidisiplinære Analyser Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse Analisi Multidisciplinare.

Présentation au sujet: "African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses Afrikanske Monsun: Multidisiplinære Analyser Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse Analisi Multidisciplinare."— Transcription de la présentation:

1 African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses Afrikanske Monsun: Multidisiplinære Analyser Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano Afrikanischer Monsun: Multidisziplinäre Analysen  Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones Africanos  Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson Africaine

2 Tendance des précipitations 1970-1990 / 1950-1970 (% / 1950-1990)

3 Factor 2 Annual rainfall & discharge index:

4 CO at 700 hPa: annual mean Important role of the West African monsoon in atmospheric chemistry and Saharan aerosol emission/transport

5 Activité de la mousson africaine et cyclones tropicaux

6 AMMA General Objectives To improve our knowledge of the West African monsoon (atmospheric, chemical, hydrological components), and of its dependance to ocean-atmosphere-land interactions To improve the scientific bases which will enable to address the problems of water resources, food security and public health in West Africa To integrate this multi-disciplinary research in forecast and decision activities

7 La sphère géophysique La dimension humaine Outils et Méthodes

8 The geophysical sphere Integrative science: West African Monsoon and the global climate [WP1.1] The water cycle [WP1.2] Surface atmosphere feedbacks [WP1.3] Scaling issues in the West African Monsoon [WP1.4] Process studies: Convection and atmospheric processes [WP2.1] Oceanic Processes [WP2.2] Physical and biological processes over land-surfaces [WP2.3] Aerosol and chemical processes in the atmosphere [WP2.4] Process studies are only the first step towards a better understanding and prediction of the African monsoon

9 Evolution des précipitations Sahel & Côte Guinéenne

10 Températures surface de mer

11 Vegetation change

12 Changement climatique ? ? ? ?

13 Prévisions saisonnières

14 The human dimension Impact studies : Land productivity [WP3.1] Water resources [WP3.3] Health impacts [WP3.4] Human processes and food security [WP3.2] The socio/economic consequences of environmental changes, land use and human activities are the aim. Evaluations of the potential of early warning systems and adaptation strategies will be a key outcome. African partners are involved in these WPs and they are key to ensuring the relevance and long term impact of AMMA.

15 ESPACE Echelle fine Grande échelle Echelle fine TEMPS Désagrégation Variabilité climatique IMPACTS Activités humaines Agrégation Application des prévisions à l’échelle locale: l’approche multi-échelle

16 Distribution des pluies à l’échelle quotidienne 1968 Fluctuations pluviométriques à : ~ 15 jours et ~ 40 jours Détermination/Prévision du début de la saison des pluies

17 Local scale: the coupling scale is central for hydrology in the Sahel 1992 20 km Spatial scales of observed rainfall variability Regional scale: meridional gradient area

18 ESPACE Echelle fine Grande échelle Echelle fine TEMPS Désagrégation Variabilité climatique IMPACTS Activités humaines Agrégation Application des prévisions à l’échelle locale: l’approche multi-échelle

19 ESPACE Echelle fine Grande échelle Echelle fine TEMPS Désagrégation Variabilité climatique IMPACTS Activités humaines Agrégation Application des prévisions à l’échelle locale: l’approche multi-échelle

20 Integrating basic research and application Tools and methods : Model evaluation and data assimilation [WP4.1] Field campaigns [WP4.2] Satellite remote sensing [WP4.3] Data base and historical data [WP4.4] Demonstration : Weather to climate forecasting [WP5.1] Early warning systems [WP5.2] Capacity building : Environmental monitoring [WP6.1] University programs & summer schools [WP6.2]

21 Integrating basic research and application Tools and methods : Model evaluation and data assimilation [WP4.1] Field campaigns [WP4.2] Satellite remote sensing [WP4.3] Data base and historical data [WP4.4] Demonstration : Weather to climate forecasting [WP5.1] Early warning systems [WP5.2] Capacity building : Environmental monitoring [WP6.1] University programs & summer schools [WP6.2] Only the integration of the basic research in the activities of the African agencies will ensure a long lasting impact.

22 Observations strategy: scales nesting E nhanced O bs. P eriod Long term Observation Period 2002 Supra-regional (WA +Ocean) Mesoscale Regional (WA) Local SPACE (km) 20052006 2007 2008 10 3 1 2 4 TIME (Years) Catch, Idaf, Aeronet Impetus, Pirata, …. SOP0: Dry phase SOP1: Monsoon Onset SOP2: Monsoon Max SOP3: Late Monsoon 1 IOPs 2 3 SO P 0 0

23 For the geophysical research a major field campaign was organized in 2006 Observational networks allowed to cover the regional scales. Ships, aircrafts and radars allowed to follow individual events.

24 The African Partnership  A new generation of young African scientists and teams, with national research projects and some international collaborations : A potential which need to be supported (education, training, funding) and whose research has begun to be coordinated AMMA-NET: network of 200 African researchers created en 2002  to favor intra-Africa collaborations and North-South exchanges  an African Implementation Plan has been written et evaluated Implication of regional centers (ACMAD, AGRYMET, EIER, CERMES, …) as well as ASECNA, National Directions of Meteorology and Hydrology  Capacity-building : African scientists transfer knowledge of the northern countries to local Applications through their own expertise :  maintenance and improvement of forecasting and early warning systems based upon local users feedback  Collaboration of African teams and regional centers in the implementation (LOP, EOP, SOP) and monitoring (EOP & LOP) of the observational networks

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32 Perspectives 1974 2005 2036 ? GATEAMMA EXP ? - dégradation du climat - Réseau AMMANET - dégradation des réseaux d’observations - Programme scientifique - faiblesse de l’organisationvalidé de la recherche - Réseaux d’observations renforcés - Base de données très importante AMMA ----> : - Meilleure compréhension des mécanismes de la mousson - Amélioration des prévisions météorologiques/climatiques - Meilleure expertise pour traiter la question des Impacts et pour la prise de décisions - Meilleure expertise pour soumettre des projets aux bailleurs de fonds Mais nécessité d’un soutien des états africains pour pérenniser ces efforts !