1 Projection of potential forest resources and wood removals use of NFI data and models at regional level A. Colin, C. Barnérias, N. Hamza, J.L. Cousin,

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1 1 Projection of potential forest resources and wood removals use of NFI data and models at regional level A. Colin, C. Barnérias, N. Hamza, J.L. Cousin, M.D. Van Damme, S. Roger Cirad – Montpellier – 28th June 2006 IFN - Nogent-sur-Vernisson - antoine.colin@ifn.fr

2 2 Context - Modernization of NFI tools and combination of 3 current applications :  Age classes (regular evenaged stands)  Diameter classes (all stand structures) - Development of a functional and modular tool (user-friendly, practical tool to discuss with local forest managers) - Project management : follow-up of processes, hypothesis and actions (traceability) - Integration of the French NFI into the growth modeler community - easier use and access to NFI data : 270 000 inventory plots, 3 millions trees, - importation of external data (productivity), - exportation of results under a database format. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

3 3 Objectives - To forecast short and mid-term potential timber harvests (5-30 yrs) - Geographic level : local, regional (natural, administrative), national - A decision-making tool :  Strategies and actions to enhance timber harvests  Adequacy between forest resource & industrial investments  Follow-up of national forest policy (afforestation program, etc.) ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

4 4 A three steps process ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier 3. Calculation of potential forest resource and wood removals in the future - Tools (growth models) - Results - Building set of forest management units - Modeling raw NFI data 1. Analysis of current forest resource - Analysis of removals in the past - Comparing forest inventories - Discussion with local managers 2. Definition of appropriate management practices

5 5 Service diagram ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier Module facultatif Module obligatoire données d'entrée ou de sortie Apports extérieur s Traitements dans Capsis scenarii de croissance Extérieur (modèles de la recherche) Hypothèses de croissance Saisie directe Comparaison d’inventaires scenarii de gestion Définition des scenarii sylvicoles Saisie directe Extérieur (ONF, CRPF, recherche) Base d’exploitation de l’IFN Constitution des DE et évaluation de leur pertinence statistique Préparation des données par DE Lissage Données d’entrée des simulateurs Choix du simulateur Caractérisation de la ressource à l'instant t Résultats, Précision Simulations (& actualisation) - par classe d'âge - par classe de diamètre - Disponibilités forestières brutes - autres … Extérieur (modèles de la recherche)

6 6 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier Compromise homogeneity x detail x statistic accuracy Building set of forest management units (DE) Minimum 5000 ha Query on NFI databases Constitutive criteria (play a role on management practices) : - Geographic localization (department, NFI region) - Ownership - Stand structure - Main tree species - Other (accessibility, elevation, site, etc.) Objective : To describe the regional forest resource for management purposes

7 7 Assessment of the forest resource (raw NFI data) Variables : Growing stock, net increment, forest area, number of stems, basal area Division criteria (NFI criteria) : - region, ownership, stand structure, tree specie - age classes, - diameter classes (small, medium, large), - slope and accessibility classes, - cross sections (timber / industrial / fuel wood), - others (to be define with local managers) Compiled data, no more use for data at plot level ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

8 8 Preparation of input data for growth models Raw NFI data (for every DE) : -growing stock, increment / classes (age or diameter) - « single-tree / distance-independent » Operation : “Smoothing” raw NFI data per ha Objectives : 1. Prevent improbable data 2. One age – one data Hypothesis : Transversal approach : the values measured on several stands of different ages at the same date are applied to one stand growing from age t to age t+n

9 9 Control factors (for every DE) : - Intensity of thinning (% growing stock, increment, number of stems), - Area concerned by regeneration practices / clear cuts, - Area of reforested & afforested lands, - Management program complying ratio in private forests Definition of forest management practices Even aged high forest of maritime pine in private forest of Brittany 1.« Business as usual » 2.Intensified management practices 3.Others … Private and public forest managers / other regional organizations / French NFI

10 10 Iterative model for age classes distributions Modeled NFI data One set of management units (DE) Evenaged stands Objectives : - resource - Wood removals

11 11 Iterative model for diameter classes distributions Short and mid-term objectives : - assessment of forest resource - calculation of potential wood removals Growth : shift in the number of stems from one diameter class to another, dynamic based on radial growth measured by NFI in the forest Thinning : % number of stems / diameter classes (output of the comparing inventories process) Every kind of stand structures ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier

12 12 Edition of PDF reports (automation) + additional calculations from the results Economic balance Fuel wood resource = wood removals – (timber + industrial round wood) Carbon balance Others …

13 13 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier Interactive mode using Capsis Qualification of appropriate management practices  for one set of forest management units (DE)  Generalisation for all set of forest management units (project) INTERNET Web service based on Capsis batch mode Shared Database Software Architecture

14 14 References 2005 - IFN. J. Lenoir. Le Douglas en Normandie : estimation et valorisation de la ressource à partir des résultats du 3 ième inventaire IFN. Rapport de fin d’étude FIF - IFN. V. Morillon. Le Douglas en Limousin. Utilisation des résultats du 4 ième inventaire IFN. Rapport de fin d’étude ENSTIB/ENGREF 2004 IFN / AFOCEL. Disponibilités en bois résineux en France, réévaluation après les tempêtes de décembre 1999 2003 IFN. Étude de la ressource forestière et des disponibilités en bois en Bretagne 2001 IFN / AFOCEL. Suivi de la ressource en pin maritime dans les Landes de Gascogne après la tempête de 1999 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Journée Capsis – 28th June 2006 – Cirad Montpellier