An Ageless Solution for Danone Par: Emilie Fournier, Roma Stepanchenko and Tyson Rigg.

Présentation au sujet: "An Ageless Solution for Danone Par: Emilie Fournier, Roma Stepanchenko and Tyson Rigg."— Transcription de la présentation:

1 An Ageless Solution for Danone Par: Emilie Fournier, Roma Stepanchenko and Tyson Rigg

2 Analyse qualitative Analyse quantitative Solution Agenda Situation actuelle Options Analyse qualitativeAnalyse quantitative Recommandation

3 Analyse qualitative Analyse quantitative Solution Situation actuelle 4 segments130 marchés Pays émergents: 53% Déjà établie en Afrique

4 Option A: Construction d’une usine et mise en place d’une filiale de distribution des produits Option B: Approvisionnement du pays par une usine située dans un pays voisin, commercialisation par un distributeur

5 Une question d’éthique... Risque de corruption S’assurer de la fraîcheur des aliments Se conformer aux normes Situation du pays peut être instable Importance du Gouvernement en place et son implication

6 Analyse qualitative Analyse quantitative Solution Analyse qualitative Option A Forces Pouvoir de négociation pour les matières premières Frais de douanes Coûts de transport Faiblesses Coûts industriels Dépenses en marketing

7 Analyse qualitative Analyse quantitative Solution Analyse qualitative Option A Menaces Nouvelle législation Évènements futurs Population actuelle Opportunités Création de plusieurs emplois Image de l’entreprise

8 Analyse qualitative Analyse quantitative Solution Analyse qualitative Option B Forces Connaissance des lois Aucune dépense industrielle Coûts en publicité moindres Faiblesses Coûts de transport Moins bon pouvoir de négociation Frais de douanes plus élevés

9 Analyse qualitative Analyse quantitative Solution Analyse qualitative Option B Menaces Main-d’œuvre du pays Conflits avec le pays d’approvisionnement Opportunités Ressources déjà établies Peut se retirer facilement

10 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Financial Forecast: A Revenues 201520162017201820192020 Consumption kg/prsn3,003,153,313,473,653,83 Growth Rate1,05 Population 44 000 000,0048 400 000,0053 240 000,0058 564 000,0064 420 400,0070 862 440,00 Growth Rate1,10 Market Share0,100,150,200,250,300,35 Growth Rate 0,05 Total Demand for Danone (kg) 22 869 000,0035 218 260,0050 846 362,8870 473 058,9494 962 446,93 Sale Price Per Kg5,005,155,305,465,635,80 Growth Rate1,03 Less Retailers Margin0,35 Net Revenue / kg3,253,353,453,553,663,77 Total Revenue0,0076 553 977,50121 429 919,11180 573 879,09257 783 658,31357 784 383,96

11 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Variable Costs201520162017201820192020 Primary Materials cost/kg1,50 Growth Rate*0,00 Total Primary Materials34 303 500,0052 827 390,0076 269 544,31105 709 588,42142 443 670,39 Industrial Costs cost/kg0,30 Growth Rate*0,00 Total Industrial Costs6 860 700,0010 565 478,0015 253 908,8621 141 917,6828 488 734,08 Logistics Costs cost/kg0,20 Growth Rate*0,00 Total Logistics Costs4 573 800,007 043 652,0010 169 272,5814 094 611,7918 992 489,39 Marketing Expense7 655 397,7512 142 991,9118 057 387,9125 778 365,8335 778 438,40 HR Expense (# of Employees)0,00100,00200,00300,00 Cost Per Employee150 000,00 Total HR Expense0,0015 000 000,0030 000 000,0045 000 000,00 Total Variable Costs0,0068 393 397,75112 579 511,91164 750 113,66211 724 483,72270 703 332,25 Fixed Costs Capacity Per Line15 000 000,00 # of Prod Lines Required (Round Up)0,001,002,003,004,005,00 Cost Per Line8 000 000,00 Total Prod Line Cost0,008 000 000,0016 000 000,0024 000 000,0032 000 000,0040 000 000,00 Building Cost10 000 000,000,00 Total Fixed Costs10 000 000,008 000 000,0016 000 000,0024 000 000,0032 000 000,0040 000 000,00 Financial Forecast: A

12 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Financial Forecast: A 1,002,003,004,005,00 PV-10 000 000,00160 579,75-7 149 592,80-8 176 234,5714 059 174,5947 081 051,70 Discount Factor1,000,870,760,660,570,50 NPV-10 000 000,00139 634,57-5 406 119,32-5 376 006,958 038 378,7023 407 603,58 Total Project NPV10 803 490,58 NPV = 10.8m

13 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Financial Forecast: B Revenues 201520162017201820192020 Consumption kg/prsn3,003,153,313,473,653,83 Growth Rate1,05 Population 44 000 000,0048 400 000,0053 240 000,0058 564 000,0064 420 400,0070 862 440,00 Growth Rate1,10 Market Share0,100,150,180,200,220,25 Growth Rate0,05 Total Demand for Danone (kg)22 869 000,0031 696 434,0040 677 090,3051 680 243,2367 830 319,23 Sale Price Per Kg5,005,155,305,465,635,80 Growth Rate1,03 Less Retailers Margin0,35 Net Revenue / kg3,253,353,453,553,663,77 Total Revenue 76 553 977,50109 286 927,20144 459 103,27189 041 349,43255 560 274,25

14 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Financial Forecast: B Variable Costs201520162017201820192020 Primary Materials cost/kg2,00 Growth Rate*0,00 Total Primary Materials45 738 000,0063 392 868,0081 354 180,60103 360 486,45135 660 638,47 Industrial Costs cost/kg0,00 Growth Rate*0,00 Total Industrial Costs0,00 Logistics Costs cost/kg0,30 Growth Rate*0,00 Total Logistics Costs6 860 700,009 508 930,2012 203 127,0915 504 072,9720 349 095,77 Marketing Expense5 358 778,437 650 084,9010 112 137,2313 232 894,4617 889 219,20 HR Expense (# of Employees)0,0030,0040,0050,00 Cost Per Employee150 000,00 Total HR Expense0,004 500 000,006 000 000,007 500 000,00 Total Variable Costs0,0062 457 478,4386 551 883,10111 169 444,92139 597 453,88181 398 953,44 Fixed Costs Capacity Per Line 15 000 000,00 # of Prod Lines Required (Round Up)0,001,002,003,004,005,00 Cost Per Line 12 000 000,00 Total Prod Line Cost0,0012 000 000,0024 000 000,0036 000 000,0048 000 000,0060 000 000,00 Building Cost0,00 Total Fixed Costs0,0012 000 000,0024 000 000,0036 000 000,0048 000 000,0060 000 000,00

15 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Financial Forecast: B 1,002,003,004,005,00 PV0,002 096 499,08-1 264 955,90-2 710 341,651 443 895,5514 161 320,82 Discount Factor1,000,870,760,660,570,50 NPV 1 823 042,67-956 488,40-1 782 093,63825 551,967 040 679,25 Total Project NPV6 950 691,86 NPV = 6.9m

16 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Option B NPV = 6.9m 3 – 4 Years Payback Option A NPV = 10.8m 3 – 4 Years Payback

17 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Option B NPV = 6.9m Option A NPV = 10.8m

18 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Implementation 0 -1 Years

19 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Implementation 1-5 Years

20 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Implementation 5 Years +

21 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Risks and Mitigations Bargaining  Ethics Policy Market Share  Marketing Currency  SWAPS Alternate Solution  Brownfield Investment

22 Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution THANK YOU Questions and Comments