Ozone production and its sensitivity to emissions An overview of the work conducted at LISA Isabelle Coll and Fanny Lasry

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05 Analysis of the factors influencing O 3 production Analysis of the factors influencing O 3 production Isabelle Coll, Fanny Lasry (LISA) oConstitution of an optimized model configuration through –The simulation of episodes with various chemical and dynamical inputs –The generation of validation indices of model-measurement comparison –A detailed analysis of the simulation results oThe observation of ozone formation on the ESCOMPTE domain trough –The identification of the location of destruction and production areas –The simulation of specific dynamical periods : which effect on ozone formation ? oFollowing ozone production along the VOC decomposition pathways (prospective : to be conducted) –Where and when do VOC species and families produce ozone? –Which VOCs are most involved in fast ozone production rates? in ozone peaks? –Which VOCs most participate in regional ozone export? –Which link with ozone control policies?

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05 At ground level on ESCOMPTE IOPs –Ozone production rates up to 45ppbv/h –Identification of photochemically active air masses and inert ozone plumes Possible to identify geographical/quantitative trends in the ozone – ozone formation relationship ? –Large variability of the PO 3 plume shape, extent and intensity from one day to another => statistical analysis from one period to another => effect of dynamics or effect of emissions ? 07/0812/08 <

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05 Identification of ozone chemical regimes –Greater consistency –Problem of the intermediate zone

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05 Following PO 3 along VOC degradation oIdea : to bring information on the participation of each VOC species/family to ozone production by marking primary and secondary species evolution SPECIES + OHPRODUCTS … O 3 ? oTracers of VOC degradation => information on –Number of VOC molecules degraded at each location –Transport and degradation of secondary species BENZENE ALKANES C3H8 Statistic analysis of their participation in high PO 3 The results expected from these studies should bring a better understanding of the development of regional ozone episodes in relation with precursor emissions.

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05 Simulation of scenarios of emission reduction Simulation of scenarios of emission reduction Isabelle Coll, Fanny Lasry (LISA), S. Fayet (AIRMARAIX) J.L. Ponche (LPCA), S. Cautenet, J. Arteta (LaMP), R. Vautard (LMD) oThe project PRIMEQUAL 2 – PREDIT Scenarios –influence of realistic strategies and arbitrary scenarios of reduction of the emissions, over various durations, in order to constitute a tool for the evaluation of environmental policies –questions are centered around the combination of actions to be conducted in order to respect current and future european ozone thresholds How to avoid ozone pollution peaks ? Which realistic emission modifications can be proposed to reduce ozone background pollution ? Traffic modulations Evolutions of the road network Emergency actions Modifications pf NMVOC emission specifications Réduction of punctual NOx emissions Consequence of the new European legislation Local decisions to reduce air pollution

Sc 0 A Référence (2001 et 2003) hors MU Scénario de référence (hors MU). Projections 2001 et Validation modèle + Référence Sc 0 B Référence 2003 avec MU Scénario de référence (avec MU) - Projection 2003 en tenant compte restrictions prises suite MU. Validation modèle + Référence Sc 1 Tendanciel 2010 Scénario tendanciel 2010 : Projection 2010 "au fil de l'eau" (prolongement des évolutions en cours). Que se passerait-il en 2010 si aucune mesure n'était prise ? Sc 2 A "OPTINEC" 2010 Scénario OPTINEC 2010 (CITEPA, MàJ Oct.2004) : il s'agit du scénario national 2010 "réaliste" calculé par le CITEPA Que se passerait-il en 2010 en considérant la réglementation engagée (situation nationale probable)? Sc 2 B NEC 2010 Scénario NEC 2010 : Respect de la directive NEC. Il s'agit du scénario national 2010 "réglementaire". Que se passerait-il en 2010 si la France respecte la directive NEC ? Sc 3 Réaliste 2010 Scénario 2 A + particularités régionales Que se passerait-il en 2010 en considérant la réglementation engagée (situation nationale probable + situation régionale probable)? Sc 4 A MU opérationnelles / mesures d'urgence (MU) en vigueur été 2004 Effet des MU en vigueur été 2004 > projection 2010 ? Sc 5 A MU complémentaires / mesures d'urgence (MU) complémentaires Effet de MU complémentaires > projection 2010 ? Sc 4 B MU opérationnelles / mesures d'urgence (MU) en vigueur été 2004 Effet des MU en vigueur été 2004 sur les épisodes de pollution ? Sc 5 B MU complémentaires / mesures d'urgence (MU) complémentaires Effet des MU complémentaires sur les épisodes de pollution ?

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05 oScientific objectives –To establish a link between ozone and its chemical precusors in order to identify and quantify the chemical factors most involved in the development of photochemical pollution What are the responses of ozone to the emissions of its precursors (NOx, the globallity of the VOCs, each VOC individually)? How to quantify it? Is there a variability of the ozone responses to emissions according to the type of meteorological situation? How to determine it? Which category(ies) of emitter(s) do(es) mostly participate in ozone production? –To establish a map of these relationships this will allow the geographical analysis of the efficiency of emission reduction scenarios –To quantify the impact of ozone control policies on several time scales What is the efficiency of the legislations for the year 2010? On ozone episodes / long term efficiency ? Impacy on ozone peaks, 8h-mean ozone concentrations, background pollution The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project CHIMERE contribution

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05 Realistic scenarios Definition: Simulations with emissions projected for the year 2010 Objectives: Qualification of the efficiency of measures engaged for the year 2010 Results: evaluation of the impacts on ozone concentrations Theoretical scenarios Definition: Simulations with reductions of the emissions of ozone precursors (VOCs, NOx, combined reductions, and reductions on each VOC) Objectives: Analysis of the ozone-precursors relation on the site Evaluation of the pertinence of the realistic scenarios Results: Sensitivity to the main categories of emitter Ozone sensitivity to emissions of its precursors Simulations conducted on ~30 days on the ESCOMPTE domain representative of various and contrasted pollution events - IOP2, 3, 4 and 1-16 august 2003 The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project CHIMERE strategy

Precursors to play on ? Expected effects ? NOxVOC_40 VOC_40 NOx_40 Necessary to combine efforts on NOx and VOCs Significative impacts expected - 20 to - 40 µg/m3 Maxima of ozone Difference with the reference

Location of the impacts of anthropogenic activities GSP_40 TRAFIC_40 TOT_40 Difference with the reference

Effect of ozone threshold exceedances : Road traffic and industrial emission = - 40% Ozone max 10/08/03 Ozone max 12/08/03 No more threshold exceedance Increase of ozone : Threshold exceedance No effect on exceedance

Regulation seems to be efficient Necessary to test it over a long period First guess : persistence of measures over several days Noxcov_40 Situation 2010 Ozone maximum oEmission scenarios : projection to year 2010 Anyway => necessary to add supplementary measures

Workshop CHIMERE 21-22/03/05 oSpatial analysis of VOC influence –Geographical scale of impact of emission reduction –Influence on the redistribution of urban and regional ozone maxima and means oStudy of the evolution of pollutants in the urban and industrial plumes oEvaluation and proposal of efficient emission reduction policies oStudy of the influence of emission reductions on background pollution (long term study) – Statistical evaluation of the impact of new regulations on air quality The PRIMEQUAL Scenario project Expected results