Modèles d’interaction et scénarios - GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables Interaction models and scenarios - Modèles d’interaction et scénarios Moulin de Beez, 29/04/2015 David Vangulick, ORES

Agenda General process and interaction models System evolution scenarios Translation into local scenarios GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

General process DSO & TSO All stakeholders * * Long term Short term Real time ex post * Not included in all interaction models

Interaction models Our goal is to make one (actually several) proposal(s) for each box in the previous slide: What information is communicated by/to the DSO? When is this information communicated? Which control means does the DSO use? How does it impact network planning? Who pays for what? Etc.

Example interaction model GCAN is performed to guide investment/communicate needs and is in line with DSO investment plan New (and update of) connections may be qualified (connection contract) and DSO may impose limits to the use of flexibility depending on the connection request and/or network condition DSO may procure flexibility to remove some network constraints Nodal/feeder baseline consumption/generation will be estimated by DSO to evaluate need for flexibility activation DSO will take preventive curtailment / flexibility activation decisions DSO uses a centralized intelligence to take corrective control actions to remove congestions in real-time.

Agenda General process and interaction models System evolution scenarios Translation into local scenarios GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

Scenarios Scenarios are devised for the evolution of the energy consumption, composed of the natural growth, and new appliances the evolution of the generation capacity considering wind turbines, PV panels, and CHPs. Horizons considered: 2020, 2030, and 2050. the evolution of the energy consumption, composed of the natural growth, and new appliances GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

Approach for evaluating the evolution of the energy consumption Calculate a new consumption considering the “natural growth” only Add the consumption due to new appliances e.g. Electric cars and Heat pumps For each new consumption type, we are considering 2 scenarios, 1 conservative (low rate of changes) 1 voluntary (high rate of changes) GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

Estimation of Natural Growth Standard rate for the evolution of consumption of residential and industrial customers: Residential, 0,5%/year note this rate takes into account the increasing number of inhabitants Industrial: 1,5%/year GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

Impact of electric vehicles Key drivers = # of inhabitants =># of EC considering age structure doesn’t change the percentage of people who are able to ride a car rate cars/1000 people is also increasing (from 516 in 2020 to 603 in 2050) Average km/year at 2020-2030-2050 Repartition between electric cars and total cars is : With these assumptions, the corresponding numbers of EVs for Wallonia are 2030 2050 Conservative Voluntary 5% 15% 60% 2030 2050 Conservative Voluntary 104.482 313.445 366.467 1.465.867 GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

Impact of heat pumps Key drivers = # of inhabitants =># of HP considering: Evolution of inhabitants / housing type (flats or house) Retrofit of old houses is also considered Each pump has an annual consumption: In 2012, already 16642 HP are installed in Belgium GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

New appliances: what if we were right ? In 2030 EV +HP = 5% of total consumption at DSO level In 2050 EV +HP = 11% of total consumption at DSO level In 2030 EV +HP = 11% of total consumption at DSO level In 2050 EV +HP = 25% of total consumption at DSO level GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

Scenarios Scenarios are devised for the evolution of the energy consumption, composed of the natural growth, and new appliances the evolution of the generation capacity considering wind turbines, PV panels, and CHPs. Horizons considered: 2020, 2030, and 2050. GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

Evolution of the Generation Capacity at regional level and connected to the DSO [MW] In 2014: 650 MW PV, 140 MW CHP, 580 MW wind, total: 1370 MW! GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

Agenda General process and interaction models System evolution scenarios Translation into local scenarios GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

Translation of global scenarios to one specific distribution network GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

Output of the translation to be used for the simulations Year N ID Type Consumption Generation (installed KW) kW # inhab # EC # HP PV CHP Wind 1 R 2 I1 … N G TOTAL GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

Methodology used for this translation Key drivers for consumption: # of inhabitants Actual industrial consumption Industrial fields not yet used Key drivers for generation: Wind Power: analyse the potential PV – CHP: using consumption as proxi Consolidation with field agents GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables

Conclusion « sur terre deux choses sont simples; raconter le passé et prédire l’avenir. Y voir clair au jour le jour est une autre entreprise » (A. Salacrou) « La meilleure façon de prédire l’avenir, c’est de le créer » (P. Drucker) GREDOR - Gestion des Réseaux Electriques de Distribution Ouverts aux Renouvelables