1 SD assessment approach Case of Tunisia Samir AMOUS - Rafik MISSAOUI (APEX-ALCOR)

2 General context Objective: The SD assessment approach is used to evaluate GHG mitigation options in order to elaborate a national action plan for GHG reduction through energy conservation. Study done for: The National Energy Conservation Agency with Canadian Cooperation

3 GHG mitigation options identification 21 identified options 12 options of demand side management in the residential- secondary sector (7), transport (4) and industry (1) 4 options of energy supply management including RE 5 transversal options Base line calculation of each option until 2020 GHG reduction estimation until 2020

4 DS themes selection Economic criteria Social criteria Environmental criteria Strategic criteria

5 Criteria and indictors selection Theme: Economy CE1 : Contribution to the economic activity increase IE1 : Marginal business volume generated by the project IE2 : Share of national production CE2 : Economic efficiency improvement IE3 : Investment Pay Back Period (for the nation) IE4 : Internal Return Rate (IRR) CE3 : National payment balance improvement IE5 : Foreign currency conservation

6 CE4 : Reduction of public finance pressure IE6 : Private investment share IE7 : Direct foreign investment share CE5 : National economy competitiveness improvement IE8 : Global impact of the project on the economy competitiveness Criteria and indictors selection Theme: Economy

7 CS1 : Local employment improvement CS2 : National capacity building CS3 : Increase of local communities contribution CS4 : Contribution to poverty alleviation CS5 : Contribution to life quality improvement of local population CS6 : Contribution to population health improvement CS7 : Women condition improvement Criteria and indictors selection Theme: social

8 CEN1 : Contribution to climate changes mitigation CEN2 : Contribution to atmospheric pollution reduction CEN3 : Contribution to water and soil pollution reduction CEN4 : Contribution to local ecosystem protection and biodiversity CEN5 : Sustainable use of natural resources Criteria and indictors selection Theme: environment

9 CST1 : Risk reduction of energy dependency CST2 : Technology transfer CST3 : Contribution to industry diversification CST4 : Strategic partnership development CST5 : Contribution to inter-regional equilibrium SD criteria and indictors selection Theme: Strategic criteria

10 SD theme weighting SD themeWeight Economic29% Social22% Environmental26% Strategic23%

11 SD indicators weighting

12 SD indicators weighting

13 Options weighted marks Wind energy Cogeneration EC for industry WSH PV pumping Global SD

14 Global SD Options weighted marks

15 Global SD Options weighted marks

16 Global SD Options weighted marks

17 Feasibility criteria Selection and weights IndicatorsWeight Regulatory framework - Existence of attractive frame15% Regulatory framework – Operationality14% Adequate institutional framework13% Stakeholders skill level11% Leadership of key stakeholders12% Social acceptability7% Ability to be funded13% Technical feasibility15%

18 IndicatorsWeight CDM 1 Ability to be funded by CDM- Real and measurable benefits 53% CDM 2 Ability to be funded by CDM- Monitoring approach 47% CDM criteria Selection and weights

19 Feasibility and CDM options weighted marks

20 Options weighted marks: SD, Feasibility and CDM

21 Critères/indicateursFacteurs de pondération IECritères économiques IE1Accroissement de l'activité économique : Volume daffaires engendré Moins de 10 millions $ US sur la période =0 Plus de 5 milliards $ US sur la période = 10 IE2Accroissement de l'activité économique : Part de la production nationale 0% = 0 100% =10 IE3Efficacité économique : Temps de retour sur linvestissement Plus de 15 ans = 0 Moins de 2 ans =10 IE4Efficacité économique : Rentabilité économique de loption TRE moins de 10% = 0 TRE plus de 40% = 10 IE5Amélioration de la balance des paiements : Gain net en devise lié à l'économie d'énergie Moins de 10 millions=0 Plus de 500 millions $ US sur la période = 10 IE6Réduction de la pression sur les finances publiques : Part du secteur privé dans l'investissement 0% = 0 100% = 10 IE7Réduction de la pression sur les finances publiques : Part des investissements étrangers directs Nulle = 0 Excellente =10 IE8Effet sur la compétitivité nationaleAucun impact =0 Impact très fort= 10