Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Richard Verret, Claude Landry, Reine Parent, Jean-François Deschênes, André Giguère Scribe Nowcasting A decision support system CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Development Branch Canadian Meteorological Center Meteorological Service of Canada Direction du développement Centre météorologique canadien Service météorologique du Canada

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Content 1.Objectives of project. 2.System description and data processing. 3.Example. 4.Verification results. 5.Conclusion. 6.Future.

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin 1. Objectives Goals of the SCRIBE Nowcasting System: To ingest observed and nowcasting model data in order to update interactively and in real-time the SCRIBE (objective or edited) weather elements. To make available to forecasters the most recent set of observed and nowcasting data directly into the SCRIBE Weather Element Editor. To provide an integrated tool to monitor, prepare, update and revise forecasts in support to short term forecast decisions.

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Concepts Generator CONCEPTS Weather Elements Numerical synthesis of matrices content Specific format Editable via interface Products Generator PRODUCTS Final products ready for delivery to clients User tailored formats Matrices Generator MATRICES Weather elements More than 1000 points 0-h to 144-h (3hr res.) MODELS NWP, UMOS PP, Climate, Analyses CMC SCRIBE SPC 2. System Description and Data Processing METARS RADAR LIGHTNING Nowcasting Models “Nowcasting” MATRICES Synth. Data Synthesis Obs + Nowcast (1hr res.) Updated Hourly

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Observations SFC OBS Radar OBS Lightning OBS QualityControl ObservationsDatabase Nowcasting Models & NWP PubTools TSTM Prob Stat. Model NowCastDatabase Radar Forecast NWP SynthesisRules Observations+ Very Short Range Forecast StationsDictionary Continuous Data 1hr time resolution Weather Elements Concepts Generator Sent to Regional SCRIBE every hour Nowcasting Matrices

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Weather Elements Concepts Generator Regional Scribe Database “Obs/Nowcast “Only” Wx Concepts t = T T+12 SCRIBE Weather Elements Concepts Update “Regular” Scribe Wx Concepts hrs (00Z or 12Z run) Interactive Concepts Merger Module “Updated” Wx Concepts + Further edition by Forecaster Product Generator Working Forecast Wx Concepts NowcastingWorking Forecast Observations Nowcast Nowcasting Matrices

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin SCRIBE 00ZNWCSTG 08ZNWCSTG 09ZNWCSTG 10ZNWCSTG 11ZNWCSTG 12ZNWCSTG 13ZNWCSTG 14ZSCRIBE 12ZNWCSTG 15ZNWCSTG 16ZNWCSTG 17ZNWCSTG 18ZNWCSTG 19ZNWCSTG 20Z 3. Example

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin WINTER Period : Nov to Feb « Cut Off » : 1 h before issue time Hourly Verification: (hr 0 to hr 6) 23 Canadian Stations with Man. obs. Morning Forecast 4. Verification Results SUMMER Period : May to Aug « Cut Off » : 1 h before issue time Hourly Verification: (hr 0 to hr 9) 23 Canadian Stations with Man. obs. Morning Forecast

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Probability of Precipitation Occurrence: precipitation lasts ≥ 15 min. Winter Brier ScoreROC Score

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Precipitation Types (Solid-Liquid-Freezing) Percent Correct Heidke Skill Score HSS Winter

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Clouds Percent Correct Heidke Skill Score Winter

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Wind Speed HSSRMSE Winter

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Wind Direction HSSRMSE Winter

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Verification scores indicate: Nowcasting improves upon pure SCRIBE for most Weather Elements at short term projection times. However Summer nowcasting PoP and precipitation types need to be improved. Nowcasting is sharper (PoP). Nowcasting increases “Utility” of forecast. Case studies show that the nowcasting system is not only a good monitoring tool but it can inform, suggest and guide the forecaster when preparing the short term forecast weather elements with SCRIBE. 5. Conclusion

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin 6. Future System Follow-up since Operational implementation last Fall Improve rules to expand performance to 9 hours (PoP & Precipitation Types). Include observed Clouds with Satellite data. Include Probabilistic RADAR and Lightning integrated forecast. More Verification: Visibility and obstruction to visibility. Wind Gusts.

Environment Canada Meteorological Service of Canada Canadian Meteorological Centre Environnement Canada Service météorologique du Canada Centre météorologique canadien CMOS – SCMO Vancouver - June 2005 Juin Thank You ! Merci !