An Ageless Solution for Danone Par: Emilie Fournier, Roma Stepanchenko and Tyson Rigg

Analyse qualitative Analyse quantitative Solution Agenda Situation actuelle Options Analyse qualitativeAnalyse quantitative Recommandation

Analyse qualitative Analyse quantitative Solution Situation actuelle 4 segments130 marchés Pays émergents: 53% Déjà établie en Afrique

Option A: Construction d’une usine et mise en place d’une filiale de distribution des produits Option B: Approvisionnement du pays par une usine située dans un pays voisin, commercialisation par un distributeur

Une question d’éthique... Risque de corruption S’assurer de la fraîcheur des aliments Se conformer aux normes Situation du pays peut être instable Importance du Gouvernement en place et son implication

Analyse qualitative Analyse quantitative Solution Analyse qualitative Option A Forces Pouvoir de négociation pour les matières premières Frais de douanes Coûts de transport Faiblesses Coûts industriels Dépenses en marketing

Analyse qualitative Analyse quantitative Solution Analyse qualitative Option A Menaces Nouvelle législation Évènements futurs Population actuelle Opportunités Création de plusieurs emplois Image de l’entreprise

Analyse qualitative Analyse quantitative Solution Analyse qualitative Option B Forces Connaissance des lois Aucune dépense industrielle Coûts en publicité moindres Faiblesses Coûts de transport Moins bon pouvoir de négociation Frais de douanes plus élevés

Analyse qualitative Analyse quantitative Solution Analyse qualitative Option B Menaces Main-d’œuvre du pays Conflits avec le pays d’approvisionnement Opportunités Ressources déjà établies Peut se retirer facilement

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Financial Forecast: A Revenues Consumption kg/prsn3,003,153,313,473,653,83 Growth Rate1,05 Population , , , , , ,00 Growth Rate1,10 Market Share0,100,150,200,250,300,35 Growth Rate 0,05 Total Demand for Danone (kg) , , , , ,93 Sale Price Per Kg5,005,155,305,465,635,80 Growth Rate1,03 Less Retailers Margin0,35 Net Revenue / kg3,253,353,453,553,663,77 Total Revenue0, , , , , ,96

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Variable Costs Primary Materials cost/kg1,50 Growth Rate*0,00 Total Primary Materials , , , , ,39 Industrial Costs cost/kg0,30 Growth Rate*0,00 Total Industrial Costs , , , , ,08 Logistics Costs cost/kg0,20 Growth Rate*0,00 Total Logistics Costs , , , , ,39 Marketing Expense , , , , ,40 HR Expense (# of Employees)0,00100,00200,00300,00 Cost Per Employee ,00 Total HR Expense0, , , ,00 Total Variable Costs0, , , , , ,25 Fixed Costs Capacity Per Line ,00 # of Prod Lines Required (Round Up)0,001,002,003,004,005,00 Cost Per Line ,00 Total Prod Line Cost0, , , , , ,00 Building Cost ,000,00 Total Fixed Costs , , , , , ,00 Financial Forecast: A

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Financial Forecast: A 1,002,003,004,005,00 PV , , , , , ,70 Discount Factor1,000,870,760,660,570,50 NPV , , , , , ,58 Total Project NPV ,58 NPV = 10.8m

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Financial Forecast: B Revenues Consumption kg/prsn3,003,153,313,473,653,83 Growth Rate1,05 Population , , , , , ,00 Growth Rate1,10 Market Share0,100,150,180,200,220,25 Growth Rate0,05 Total Demand for Danone (kg) , , , , ,23 Sale Price Per Kg5,005,155,305,465,635,80 Growth Rate1,03 Less Retailers Margin0,35 Net Revenue / kg3,253,353,453,553,663,77 Total Revenue , , , , ,25

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Financial Forecast: B Variable Costs Primary Materials cost/kg2,00 Growth Rate*0,00 Total Primary Materials , , , , ,47 Industrial Costs cost/kg0,00 Growth Rate*0,00 Total Industrial Costs0,00 Logistics Costs cost/kg0,30 Growth Rate*0,00 Total Logistics Costs , , , , ,77 Marketing Expense , , , , ,20 HR Expense (# of Employees)0,0030,0040,0050,00 Cost Per Employee ,00 Total HR Expense0, , , ,00 Total Variable Costs0, , , , , ,44 Fixed Costs Capacity Per Line ,00 # of Prod Lines Required (Round Up)0,001,002,003,004,005,00 Cost Per Line ,00 Total Prod Line Cost0, , , , , ,00 Building Cost0,00 Total Fixed Costs0, , , , , ,00

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Financial Forecast: B 1,002,003,004,005,00 PV0, , , , , ,82 Discount Factor1,000,870,760,660,570,50 NPV , , , , ,25 Total Project NPV ,86 NPV = 6.9m

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Option B NPV = 6.9m 3 – 4 Years Payback Option A NPV = 10.8m 3 – 4 Years Payback

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Option B NPV = 6.9m Option A NPV = 10.8m

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Implementation 0 -1 Years

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Implementation 1-5 Years

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Implementation 5 Years +

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution Risks and Mitigations Bargaining  Ethics Policy Market Share  Marketing Currency  SWAPS Alternate Solution  Brownfield Investment

Qualitative analysisQuantitative analysisSolution THANK YOU Questions and Comments