Colloque « pollutions olfactives » 08/02/ 05 Use of CHIMERE in the Transboundary Air Pollution Negociations framework Laurence ROUÏL Direction des Risques.

Présentation au sujet: "Colloque « pollutions olfactives » 08/02/ 05 Use of CHIMERE in the Transboundary Air Pollution Negociations framework Laurence ROUÏL Direction des Risques."— Transcription de la présentation:

1 Colloque « pollutions olfactives » 08/02/ 05 Use of CHIMERE in the Transboundary Air Pollution Negociations framework Laurence ROUÏL Direction des Risques chroniques

2 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop Introduction and Context oINERIS acts as a technical support of the Ministry of Ecology : Support for the definition of national environmental regulations, Participation to European normative work, Participation to European working groups devoted the definition of future policies oWithin the framework of air quality…. Since 1979 : Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) : UN -ECE Since 2002-2003 until july 2005: CAFE program (EU) ; definition of the « Air Quality Thematic Strategy » defining the main purposes of the future european legislation Since 2005 until July 2006: Review of the National Emission Ceilings Directive Several working groups (EU and UN-ECE) devoted to air quality monitoring (measurements) and normative aspects

3 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop UN-ECE : Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution, INERIS involvment Organe Exécutif (représentants des Parties) Pays chef de file Centre de Coordination modélisation intégrée Centres de Coordination Substances chimiques Synthèse météo Est et Ouest PIC = Programme International Concerté TF = Task Force (équipe spéciale) Comité d'application centre de coordination Groupe de Travail sur les EFFETS PIC Modélisation et Cartographie PIC Suivi Intégré sur les écosystèmes PIC Forêts TF Santé Humaine PIC Matériaux PIC Végétation PIC Eaux Organe Directeur EMEP Groupe de Travail STRATEGIES TF Inventaires d'Emis- sions et prévisions TF Mesures et Modélisation (transferts atmosphériques) TF Modélisation Intégrée (Optimisation économique des scénarios) Groupe dexperts sur les POPs Groupe dexperts sur lammoniac Réseau NEBEI (Economique) Réseau EGTEI (Technico-économique) Groupe dExperts sur les Métaux

4 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop Use of Air quality modelling….. Air quality mapping : Acidification/Eutrophisation effects Ground level ozone POPs and HM PM purposes (since 2004) Trends analysis : As a complementary tool of measurement stations Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) : Evaluation of the environmental and health effects of Air Quality Policies with respect to their cost Sources/receptor matrices calculations all over Europe Uncertainties analysis EMEP (MSC-West) and RAINS (IIASA) models are the « official » tools in the European framework

5 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop French contribution for AQ modelling o To check the EMEP results for base cases (current situation) but also for emission reduction scenario runs (2010-2020) through models intercomparison exercises TFMM intercomparison project (TNO) : comparison against observations City-Delta project (CAFE) : downscaling purposes Eurodelta Project (TFMM) : source/receptor matrices evaluation o To help to define alternative emission reduction policies Efficiency of the national emission ceilings approach? Relevance of sectoral approach? Geographical heterogeneity o To contribute to the development of European tools See City-Delta consequences CHIMERE is used since 2001 by INERIS to develop the french expertise and involvment on the modelling aspects….

6 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop TFMM intercomparison exercise - 2003 Organized by the TNO (NL) Focused on Ozone and PM 50km*50km modelling. Models involved : EMEP, LOTOS (NL), REM3 (DE), MATCH (S), DEHM (D), CHIMERE (F) Intercomparaison TFMM (TNO)-NMSE O3

7 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop Intercomparaison TFMM (TNO)-Corrélation O3 Resultats O3….

8 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop Intercomparaison TFMM (TNO) PM10 (a) corrélations (b) scatter plots/observations

9 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop CITY-DELTA exercise Organized by IIASA and JRC (Ispra) for the CAFE program Focused on Ozone and PM 50km*50km regional modelling and 5km*5km local modelling. Base case and emission reducion scenarios Models involved in the « part 2 »: EMEP, LOTOS (NL), REM3 (DE), MATCH (S), CHIMERE (F) to model the situation over Paris, Milan Prague and Berlin areas Consequences : Model intercomparison over cities areas Evaluation of the robustness of the modelling approach for regulatory purposes Statistical definition of « urban signals », for PPM2.5, to be implemented in RAINS as a correction of regional EMEP results over cities areas

10 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop EURODELTA exercise Organized by the TFMM and MSC-W Focused on Ozone and PM 50km*50km regional modelling and sources/receptor matrices computations Models involved in the « part 2 »: EMEP, LOTOS (NL), REM3 (DE), MATCH (S), CHIMERE (F)

11 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop Sensitive areas - Ozone (2000-2020) UK Italy Benelux Spain Big Cities

12 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop NOx total deposition: - « hot spots » computed with MATCH - Lower values for LOTOS -CHIMERE and EMEP very similar

13 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop CHIMERE - EMEP O3 - 2020 + Italian reduction NOx scen VOC scen Differences from the « base case » transposed to the others

14 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop Further applications : french analysis of emission reduction policies Looking for new emission reduction hypothesis (2010-2020), as an alternative solution to national emission ceilings… French runs made with CHIMERE ….Compared to results given by « EMEP-Unified » Sectoral approach : cooperation with CITEPA and economists team

15 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop Pollutants : SO2, NOx, COV, NH3 Référence : 2000 CLE : Current Legislation Emissions ; IIASA (Autriche) GOT + NEC : Goteborg Protocol outside EU OPTINEC : french emission projections for 2010 (CITEPA) Example : National scenarios for 2010 SO2NOxCOVNH3 2000 CLE Optinec GOT + NEC 65414411726784 4008581100791 461990953857 3758101050780 (ktonnes)

16 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop Mean of daily ozone peaks…. Consequences for a 2003 year like 180-190 g/m 3

17 21/03/ 05 CHIMERE Workshop Could a sectoral approach be efficient?….