The MerSea System: towards Marine Core Services for GMES

Présentation au sujet: "The MerSea System: towards Marine Core Services for GMES"— Transcription de la présentation:

1 The MerSea System: towards Marine Core Services for GMES
Yves Desaubies for the Mersea Consortium EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

2 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
Outline A project, MERSEA Integrated Project (FP6) An integrated system A service, the Marine Core Services (MCS) for GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) Relevance to environmental monitoring and reporting EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

3 R&D Monitoring & Forecasting The MERSEA Integrated Project
A GMES/EC project R&D Monitoring & Forecasting The MERSEA Integrated Project EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

4 The MERSEA Integrated Project
Development of a European system for operational monitoring and forecasting of the ocean physics, biogeochemistry, and ecosystems, on global and regional scales R&D project funded under 6th FP of the European Commission 4-year project (2004 –2008) 38 contractors, 16 countries (or Int. Org.) Coordination : IFREMER, France ; Y.Desaubies EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

5 Implementing the Measurement Subsystem
GMES Marine Core Services Implementing the Measurement Subsystem Combining in-situ and satellite data, with models to provide GMES Marine Core Services Transition slide to measurements Analysis, forecast and hindcast EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

6 The MERSEA System: from observations to ocean products
A GMES/EC project The MERSEA System: from observations to ocean products EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

7 One single « Integrated System »
EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

8 A « system of systems » 3 Thematic Assembly Centres for data
5 Monitoring and Forecasting Centres EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

9 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
Area I : Global Ocean Area II : North East Atlantic Area III : Arctic Area IV : Baltic Sea Area V : Mediterranean Sea 3 2 4 1 5 EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

10 viewing … Surface Temperature (Global Ocean, model forecast)
EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

11 viewing … Ocean Color (Global Ocean, observation)
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12 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
Area 3 Arctic Area 1 Global Area 4 Baltic Area 2 North East Atlantic EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

13 viewing … North East Atlantic (different fields, model & observations)
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14 Operational Monitoring & Forecasting The Marine Core Service
The GMES Ocean Fast-track service Operational Monitoring & Forecasting The Marine Core Service GMES EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

15 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
Marine Core Services Multiple uses of the seas pose multiple challenges ; Require different types of data, products and information and delivery systems. But they share common requirements (observing systems, monitoring, forecasting), and need a coherent understanding of the ocean environment. The MCS constitute the common foundation upon which specific products can be developed. They encompass a set of basic, generic, common services needed by a wide range of super-users. For EEA : emphasis on : Baseline information, long series, trends, extremes Development of indicators Expert interpretation EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

16 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
Areas of benefit Climate Marine and coastal Environment Environmental monitoring and reporting Seasonal and weather forecasting Offshore Maritime transport and safety Fisheries Research General Public EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

17 Core Service: transforming data into ocean products
Operational Production of Ocean Core Data T,S, UV, SSH, Sea - ice, Chl-a Dissemination of Products Standard and easy access to users (information management) Nowcast, forecast and re-analysis Assessment and expertise Quality and human expertise Tools dev. & maintenance Model, assimilation, data handling EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

18 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
Example: sea ice EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

19 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
TOPAZ Ice drift EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

20 Time evolution of Arctic ice
5 4.48 F. Ardhuin tendance : minimum annuel < 5 M° km² EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

21 Assessment: sea-ice modelling (assimilation)
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22 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
MODIS Chla : 11 yrs analysis EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

23 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
Indicators Must summarize complex information in a synthetic way Illustrate trend or impact, be easily understood Meaningful to the targeted audience Scientific, general public; relevant for policy making, treaty monitoring, Marine Strategy, EEA Appropriately designed, Validated, with measure of uncertainty Describe trends (past and forecast), anomalies Need for baseline (retrospective analysis) EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

24 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
Global mean sea level from Topex/Poseidon altimetry Rate of rise : /-0.4 mm/yr With GIA correction : 3.3 +/- 0.4 mm/yr A. Cazenave, LEGOS, Toulouse EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

25 Temperature at the surface
Decadal/interannual oceanic variation in the North Atlantic Ocean from the Mercator re-analysis (MERA-11) Impact on the climate cumulated trend : Courtesy of E. Grenier and J. Pergaud, Mercator Ocean Temperature at the surface Temperature at 100 meters Analyse de MERA-11 par E. Greiner et J. Pergaud: Sur 10 ans, les champs de température montrent un réchauffement, qui se traduit par une augmentation en surface (cumulée sur 10 ans) de 2 à 3°C dans les gyres subtropical et subpolaire. Avec des zones plus affectées comme en mer du Nord, ou au large du Sénégal. Ce réchauffement est sensible aussi en subsurface, en particulier dans le gyre subpolaire: il est cohérent et intense dans au sud-est du Groenland, et pourrait bien traduire un affaiblissement des phénomènes de convections profondes hivernales. A l’inverse, la bande tropicale Atlantique est plus contrastée, bien que le courant Sud Equatorial se caractérise par un réchauffement important. Traduit en tendance sur tout le bassin, ces analyses indiquent un réchauffement moyen de 0.06°C/an, et une augmentation de 3mm/an du niveau des mers. + 3mm/year °C/year EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

26 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
Decadal/interannual oceanic variation in the North Atlantic Ocean from the Mercator re-analysis (MERA-11) Yearly change : SST trend anomalies: Courtesy of E. Grenier and J. Pergaud, Mercator Ocean Analyse de MERA-11 par E. Greiner et J. Pergaud: L’analyse de la planche précédente a été decomposée année par année. On observe alors des variations interannuelles de ces changements moyens de température. En particulier, les anomalies de variations cumulées de SST pour les années 1995 et 1998 qui montrent une anticorrelation complete, avec une distribution qui fait clairement apparaitre un regime dipolaire sur l’Atlantique Nord: des cycles de variations froid/chaud, que l’on montre associés à NAO sont clairement visibles sur des anomalies annuels de 2-3°C. Cela n’a pas été investigué a Mercator Océan, mais une telle regionalisation des variations annuelles doit impacter fortement le climat regional (cela ou le sait, avec les variations saisonnieres climatiques en fonction de NAO), mais aussi l’ecosystème marin. Phase phase EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

27 Mediterranean : Coastal Heat Flux Index
Left: coastal areas, where the depth is smaller than 200m (green colour) and areas deeper than 200m (blue colour). Right: Comparison between the surface integral of the total heat flux in the coastal areas, in the areas deeper that 200 meters and in the whole basin [W/m2] EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

28 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
Transport Through the major Mediterranean Straits (TTS) compared with climatological means EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

29 Monitoring in support of seasonal forecasting
Summer of 2005 : Met Office forecast for the coming winter to be colder than average Forecast was based upon statistical and dynamical methods Cold winter conditions were associated with re-emergence of a tripole pattern of SST anomalies FOAM temperature anomalies at 60-90m depth for 5-12th December 2005 Tri-polar anomaly pattern highlighted FOAM outputs were being used to monitor for the presence of such anomalies Subsurface FOAM anomalies identified that tripole pattern of anomalies was present EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

30 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
July 2003 July 2006 EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

31 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
July 2006 July 2005 August 2006 EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

32 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
Conclusions Observations are indispensable for monitoring Monitoring (and forecasting) systems provide powerful tool to Integrate diverse data sets, provide consistent view Interpolate in space and time, Provide re-analyses, => time series Need for derived quantities Indicators, integral and derived quantities (heat flux, transports,residence time,…) Focus is presently on physical quantities T, heat, u,v, sea ice, waves, turbidity EEA – EMMA Workshop, October

33 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October
Conclusions Progress on eco-system modelling Chla, primary production, biomass, Global aspects and climate are key drivers Extended weather forecasts Links with coastal / sub regional areas Marine Core Services to provide common standards (SLA) Access to information Diverse users : science, EEA, ICES, general public Must provide expert assessment EEA – EMMA Workshop, October