EDC - En appui aux exportations et investissements Canadiens au Moyen Orient Mars 2013.

Présentation au sujet: "EDC - En appui aux exportations et investissements Canadiens au Moyen Orient Mars 2013."— Transcription de la présentation:

1 EDC - En appui aux exportations et investissements Canadiens au Moyen Orient Mars 2013

2 Agenda Rôle dEDC Aperçu économique et politique des pays du Conseil de Coopération du Golfe

3 Rôle dEDC Appuyer et développer le commerce extérieur du Canada et ses efforts commerciaux sur la scène internationale Offrir des solutions de financement et dassurance aux exportateurs et aux investisseurs canadiens Offrir des solutions de financement aux acheteurs étrangers qui achètent de bien et services canadien ou qui investisse au Canada. 3

4 4 Aperçu économique et politique des pays du Conseil de Coopération du Golfe World Trade Centre Montréal Presenté par: John Bitzan, analyste des risques politiques, afrique et moyen orient, Centre dinformation économique et politique March 14, 2013

5 The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries

6 Common Attributes Conservative societies Governments have close ties with West Little taxation = Little representation Mostly dependent on energy exports Employment: expats over-represented in private sector

7 Saudi Arabia – Political Overview Political Structure Absolute monarchy Strengths Deep pockets, (some) religious legitimacy

8 Saudi Arabia - Political Overview – Strengths: Deep Pockets Source: EIU/Haver salary bonuses, housing investment, etc.

9 Saudi Arabia – Political Overview Political Structure Absolute monarchy Strengths Deep pockets, (some) religious legitimacy Weaknesses Aging leadership, alienated minority, socio-economic issues

10 Saudi Arabia – Political Overview – Weaknesses: Succession Le roi Abd al- Aziz ibn Saud, m. 1953 Le prince héritier Sultan, m. 2011 Le prince héritier Nayef, m. 2012 Le prince héritier Salman (78 ans) Le roi Fahd, m. 2005Le roi Abdallah (89 ans) Le prince Muqrin, 2 ième vice- prémier, (68 ans) Les fils dibn Saud – 2 ième génération

11 Saudi Arabia – Economic Overview Economic Structure Source: EIU/Haver

12 Saudi Arabia – Economic Overview Strengths Government finances, industrial investment, trade surpluses Source: EIU/Haver

13 Saudi Arabia – Economic Overview Weaknesses Unemployment, spending trends Source: Jadwa Investments, Paul Gamble, Saudi Arabias Coming Oil and Fiscal Challenge, July 2011

14 Saudi Arabia – Trade with Canada Source: Industry Canada/StatsCan

15 United Arab Emirates – Political Overview Political Structure Federation of Emirates Strengths Popular legitimacy Weaknesses Loose federation

16 UAE– Economic Overview Structure Source: EIU/Haver

17 UAE– Economic Overview Structure Strengths Government finances Diversified Weaknesses Real estate, Dubai debt

18 UAE– Economic Overview Weaknesses Real estate, Dubai debt Source: National Bank of Abu Dhabi, Economic Research Dept

19 UAE– Economic Overview Weaknesses Real estate, Dubai debt Source: IMF, UAE Article IV, 2012

20 UAE – Trade with Canada

21 Did the UAE-Canada airline dispute affect trade?

22 UAE – Trade with Canada Probably not…

23 Kuwait– Political Overview Political Structure Monarchy balanced by parliament Strengths Active parliament, relatively free press Weaknesses Political paralysis, no progress on foreign investment

24 Kuwait – Economic Overview Strengths High GDP per capita, massive oil reserves, fiscal surpluses

25 Kuwait – Economic Overview Weaknesses Very oil dependent, government over-spending

26 Kuwait – Economic Overview Weaknesses Very oil dependent, government over-spending

27 Kuwait – Trade with Canada

28 Bahrain – Political Overview Political Structure Monarchy with weakened parliament Weaknesses Unresolved tensions (post-2011), sectarian division

29 Bahrain – Economic Overview Economic Structure Strengths Relatively diversified, regional financial hub

30 Bahrain – Economic Overview Weaknesses Diminishing oil reserves, high break-even oil price Source: IMF, Article IV, UAE, 2011

31 Bahrain – Trade with Canada

32 Oman – Political Overview Political Structure Absolute monarchy Strengths Ruler popular Weaknesses Succession, over-personalized rule, limited political reforms

33 Oman – Economic Overview Economic Structure

34 Oman – Economic Overview Economic Structure Strengths Good economic policy record, fiscal surpluses Weaknesses Low oil reserves, domestic gas shortage

35 Oman – Trade with Canada

36 Qatar– Political Overview Political Structure Absolute monarchy Strengths Population well-off and generally satisfied Weaknesses Local resentment of expats

37 Qatar – Economic Overview Economic Structure Strengths Highest GDP per capita in world, worlds 3 rd largest natural gas reserves, biggest LNG exporter

38 Qatar – Economic Overview Weaknesses High spending, high external debt to GDP ratio (~75%) Screen clipping taken: 3/12/2013, 1:08 AM

39 Qatar – Trade with Canada

40 Other Data: Ease of Doing Business Rankings (World Bank) CountryEase of Doing Business Rank Singapore1 Hong Kong SAR, China2 New Zealand3 …… Saudi Arabia22 United Arab Emirates26 Qatar40 Bahrain42 Oman47 Kuwait82 …… Central African Republic185

41 Personnes Ressources Jean Francois Croft Représentant en chef, Moyen-Orient Tel: (613) 597-7882 Fax: (613) 598-2503 Courriel: jcroft@edc.cajcroft@edc.ca Vicky Brouillard Directrice régionale, Méditerranée orientale et Moyen-Orient Tel: (613) 597-8696 Fax: (613) 598-2503 Courriel: vbrouillard@edc.cavbrouillard@edc.ca Kristien Buckingham Coordinatrice, Moyen-Orient – basé a Abu Dhabi Tel: (613) 597-3359, Fax: (613) 598-2503 Courriel: kbuckingham@edc.cakbuckingham@edc.ca John Bitzan Analyste des risques politiques, Afrique et Moyen-Orient Tel: (613) 598-2713 Courriel: jbitzan@edc.cajbitzan@edc.ca 41 www.edc.ca

42 Merci! Questions? 42