The MerSea System: towards Marine Core Services for GMES Yves Desaubies for the Mersea Consortium EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October Outline A project, MERSEA Integrated Project (FP6) An integrated system A service, the Marine Core Services (MCS) for GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) Relevance to environmental monitoring and reporting EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

R&D Monitoring & Forecasting The MERSEA Integrated Project A GMES/EC project R&D Monitoring & Forecasting The MERSEA Integrated Project EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

The MERSEA Integrated Project Development of a European system for operational monitoring and forecasting of the ocean physics, biogeochemistry, and ecosystems, on global and regional scales R&D project funded under 6th FP of the European Commission 4-year project (2004 –2008) 38 contractors, 16 countries (or Int. Org.) Coordination : IFREMER, France ; Y.Desaubies EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

Implementing the Measurement Subsystem GMES Marine Core Services Implementing the Measurement Subsystem Combining in-situ and satellite data, with models to provide GMES Marine Core Services Transition slide to measurements Analysis, forecast and hindcast EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

The MERSEA System: from observations to ocean products A GMES/EC project The MERSEA System: from observations to ocean products EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

One single « Integrated System » EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

A « system of systems » 3 Thematic Assembly Centres for data 5 Monitoring and Forecasting Centres EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October Area I : Global Ocean Area II : North East Atlantic Area III : Arctic Area IV : Baltic Sea Area V : Mediterranean Sea 3 2 4 1 5 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

viewing … Surface Temperature (Global Ocean, model forecast) EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

viewing … Ocean Color (Global Ocean, observation) EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October Area 3 Arctic Area 1 Global Area 4 Baltic Area 2 North East Atlantic EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

viewing … North East Atlantic (different fields, model & observations) EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

Operational Monitoring & Forecasting The Marine Core Service The GMES Ocean Fast-track service Operational Monitoring & Forecasting The Marine Core Service GMES EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October Marine Core Services Multiple uses of the seas pose multiple challenges ; Require different types of data, products and information and delivery systems. But they share common requirements (observing systems, monitoring, forecasting), and need a coherent understanding of the ocean environment. The MCS constitute the common foundation upon which specific products can be developed. They encompass a set of basic, generic, common services needed by a wide range of super-users. For EEA : emphasis on : Baseline information, long series, trends, extremes Development of indicators Expert interpretation EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October Areas of benefit Climate Marine and coastal Environment Environmental monitoring and reporting Seasonal and weather forecasting Offshore Maritime transport and safety Fisheries Research General Public EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

Core Service: transforming data into ocean products Operational Production of Ocean Core Data T,S, UV, SSH, Sea - ice, Chl-a Dissemination of Products Standard and easy access to users (information management) Nowcast, forecast and re-analysis Assessment and expertise Quality and human expertise Tools dev. & maintenance Model, assimilation, data handling EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October Example: sea ice EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October TOPAZ Ice drift EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

Time evolution of Arctic ice 5 4.48 F. Ardhuin tendance : minimum annuel < 5 M° km² EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

Assessment: sea-ice modelling (assimilation) EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October MODIS Chla : 11 yrs analysis EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October Indicators Must summarize complex information in a synthetic way Illustrate trend or impact, be easily understood Meaningful to the targeted audience Scientific, general public; relevant for policy making, treaty monitoring, Marine Strategy, EEA Appropriately designed, Validated, with measure of uncertainty Describe trends (past and forecast), anomalies Need for baseline (retrospective analysis) EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October Global mean sea level from Topex/Poseidon altimetry Rate of rise : 2.98 +/-0.4 mm/yr With GIA correction : 3.3 +/- 0.4 mm/yr 1993-2005 A. Cazenave, LEGOS, Toulouse EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

Temperature at the surface Decadal/interannual oceanic variation in the North Atlantic Ocean from the 1992-2002 Mercator re-analysis (MERA-11) Impact on the climate 1993-2001 cumulated trend : Courtesy of E. Grenier and J. Pergaud, Mercator Ocean Temperature at the surface Temperature at 100 meters Analyse de MERA-11 par E. Greiner et J. Pergaud: Sur 10 ans, les champs de température montrent un réchauffement, qui se traduit par une augmentation en surface (cumulée sur 10 ans) de 2 à 3°C dans les gyres subtropical et subpolaire. Avec des zones plus affectées comme en mer du Nord, ou au large du Sénégal. Ce réchauffement est sensible aussi en subsurface, en particulier dans le gyre subpolaire: il est cohérent et intense dans au sud-est du Groenland, et pourrait bien traduire un affaiblissement des phénomènes de convections profondes hivernales. A l’inverse, la bande tropicale Atlantique est plus contrastée, bien que le courant Sud Equatorial se caractérise par un réchauffement important. Traduit en tendance sur tout le bassin, ces analyses indiquent un réchauffement moyen de 0.06°C/an, et une augmentation de 3mm/an du niveau des mers. + 3mm/year + 0.06°C/year EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October Decadal/interannual oceanic variation in the North Atlantic Ocean from the 1992-2002 Mercator re-analysis (MERA-11) Yearly change : SST trend anomalies: Courtesy of E. Grenier and J. Pergaud, Mercator Ocean Analyse de MERA-11 par E. Greiner et J. Pergaud: L’analyse de la planche précédente a été decomposée année par année. On observe alors des variations interannuelles de ces changements moyens de température. En particulier, les anomalies de variations cumulées de SST pour les années 1995 et 1998 qui montrent une anticorrelation complete, avec une distribution qui fait clairement apparaitre un regime dipolaire sur l’Atlantique Nord: des cycles de variations froid/chaud, que l’on montre associés à NAO sont clairement visibles sur des anomalies annuels de 2-3°C. Cela n’a pas été investigué a Mercator Océan, mais une telle regionalisation des variations annuelles doit impacter fortement le climat regional (cela ou le sait, avec les variations saisonnieres climatiques en fonction de NAO), mais aussi l’ecosystème marin. Phase + 1995 phase - 1998 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

Mediterranean : Coastal Heat Flux Index Left: coastal areas, where the depth is smaller than 200m (green colour) and areas deeper than 200m (blue colour). Right: Comparison between the surface integral of the total heat flux in the coastal areas, in the areas deeper that 200 meters and in the whole basin [W/m2] EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October Transport Through the major Mediterranean Straits (TTS) compared with climatological means EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

Monitoring in support of seasonal forecasting Summer of 2005 : Met Office forecast for the coming winter to be colder than average Forecast was based upon statistical and dynamical methods Cold winter conditions were associated with re-emergence of a tripole pattern of SST anomalies FOAM temperature anomalies at 60-90m depth for 5-12th December 2005 Tri-polar anomaly pattern highlighted FOAM outputs were being used to monitor for the presence of such anomalies Subsurface FOAM anomalies identified that tripole pattern of anomalies was present EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October July 2003 July 2006 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October July 2006 July 2005 August 2006 EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October Conclusions Observations are indispensable for monitoring Monitoring (and forecasting) systems provide powerful tool to Integrate diverse data sets, provide consistent view Interpolate in space and time, Provide re-analyses, => time series Need for derived quantities Indicators, integral and derived quantities (heat flux, transports,residence time,…) Focus is presently on physical quantities T, heat, u,v, sea ice, waves, turbidity EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October

EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October Conclusions Progress on eco-system modelling Chla, primary production, biomass, Global aspects and climate are key drivers Extended weather forecasts Links with coastal / sub regional areas Marine Core Services to provide common standards (SLA) Access to information Diverse users : science, EEA, ICES, general public Must provide expert assessment EEA – EMMA Workshop, 23-24 October