Emerging Threats Program Text The Emerging Pandemic Threats Program

Emerging Threats Program Four “Take Home” Messages 1. We live during an extraordinary period of human history – characterized by an unprecedented increase in the emergence of new infectious diseases and their potential to have a global impact 2. Underlying most disease emergence are five key “drivers” that converge at the “human-animal-ecosystem” interface 3. “High risk” human behaviors and practices are at the core of disease emergence 4. Understanding the dynamics behind disease emergence allows for the formulation of “risk-based” strategies to mitigate their threat

Emerging Threats Program What do we know about “disease emergence”? Three-quarters of emerging disease threats arise from animal reservoirs The “human-animal-ecosystem interface” is at the center of new disease emergence Emergence is closely linked to geographic “hot spots” where there is intensive animal-human interactions amplified by environmental changes

Emerging Threats Program

Using “Risk-Based” Strategies to Target Interventions Understanding of factors that drive the emergence of zoonotic diseases have led to new risk-based models for forecasting new zoonotic diseases. The origins of newly emergent diseases have been found to strongly correlate with specific: –geographic areas –animal hosts –microbial agents –“high risk” human populations.

Standard Model for Outbreak Detection and Response CASESCASES TIME Detection Lab Confirmation Response First Case

Emerging Threats Program Animal Amplification CASESCASES TIME SPILL OVER Human Cases Wild Animal Domestic Animal SPILL OVER Early Detection and Control Opportunities Wildlife Surveillance/ Forecasting One Health – Public health as part of the “ecosystem”

Emerging Threats Program Animal Amplification CASESCASES TIME Wildlife ecologists The Professional Spectrum of Public Health Spans……. Conservationists Veterinarians Behavioral ScientistField Epidemiologists Labortorians Medical and Public Health Practitioners

Emerging Threats Program Pathogen discovery Longitudinal surveillance of wildlife and domestic animals to identify and characterize specific microbes that may cause serious disease in humans Pathogen discovery Longitudinal surveillance of wildlife and domestic animals to identify and characterize specific microbes that may cause serious disease in humans Risk determination Characterize risk that a microbe may pose to humans and its route of transmission from animals to humans Risk determination Characterize risk that a microbe may pose to humans and its route of transmission from animals to humans Outbreak response capacity Strengthen country capacities to detect and respond to outbreaks in animals and humans Outbreak response capacity Strengthen country capacities to detect and respond to outbreaks in animals and humans Four “Action Areas” for pre-empting future threats Human risk reduction Minimize those human behaviors and practices that increase the risk of “spill over” and “amplification ” Human risk reduction Minimize those human behaviors and practices that increase the risk of “spill over” and “amplification ”

Emerging Pandemic Threats Program PREDICT RESPOND PREVENT IDENTIFY USAID Emerging Threats Projects PREDICT IDENTIFY RESPOND PREVENT

Emerging Threats Program Pathogen Discovery developing a surveillance strategy responsive to pathogen emergence Target monitoring at points of “high risk” transmission interfaces – between wildlife, livestock and humans Hunting Markets/trade Wildlife/livestock conflict Shared habitat Extraction Land use change Water availability Global transportation

Emerging Threats Program Characterizing Molecular Risk on the basis of genetic and epidemiologic properties Genetic Relatedness to Known Human Pathogens to Pathogens Known to Have Crossed Host Barriers & Caused Disease Transmissibility Factors Common Characteristics with Known Pathogens Host-to-Host Transfer Routes Opportunity for and Evidence of Spillover & Spread Pathogenic Potential in New Hosts Replication Levels Tissue Tropism

Emerging Threats Program Enhancing Out Break Response focusing on strengthening “core capacities” Strengthening National Outbreak Response Preparedness Development of national Outbreak Preparedness and Response Plans Building “One Heath” response capacities Cross-training of animal and human health response teams Lab capacities Investing in Future “One Health” Leadership Transforming pre-service experience in Schools of Public Health, Veterinary Medicine, Medicine, Environment …….

Emerging Threats Program Reducing Human Risk targeting practices and behaviors that enable “spill over” and “amplification” Targeting “High Risk” Practices Partnering with National governments, the Extractive Industry and Banks to mainstream standardized “risk assessment and mitigation” protocols into future activities Mapping and regulating the trade in “bush meat” and wild animal products Promotion of “healthy markets” Promotion of “bio-secure” agricultural practices

Emerging Threats Program Four “Take Home” Messages 1. We live during an extraordinary period of human history – characterized by an unprecedented increase in the emergence of new infectious diseases and their potential to have a global impact 2. Underlying most disease emergence are five key “drivers” that converge at the “human-animal-ecosystem” interface 3. “High risk” human behaviors and practices are at the core of disease emergence 4. Understanding the dynamics behind disease emergence allows for the formulation of “risk-based” strategies to mitigate their threat

Emerging Threats Program Merci!